The Argentine economy is experiencing a paradox that sets off all alarms. On one hand, the most competitive sectors – agriculture, Vaca Muerta oil, and mining – are liquidating dollars at a record pace. The Rosario Stock Exchange projects that these three complexes will bring in 57.168 billion dollars in 2026, surpassing the previous record from 2022. In the first half alone, 27.375 billion have already entered. However, official data from the Central Bank shows a contrasting reality: the monetary authority has barely managed to buy 9.756 billion dollars in the foreign exchange market through May. In the same period, individuals – that is, ordinary savers – acquired 14.033 billion. More than the Central Bank itself.
The comparison is brutal and exposes the government’s difficulties in converting the flood of foreign currency into international reserves. As the Minister of Economy said, the difference between buying dollars and accumulating reserves is key. But here, the government struggles with both. While individuals dollarize freely, the Central Bank led by Santiago Bausili lags behind. In plain terms: the private sector absorbed more dollars than the state itself, in a context of capital account opening and total flexibility to purchase foreign currency.
The report from the Rosario Stock Exchange, prepared by Tomás Rodríguez Zurro, Guido D’Angelo, and Julio Calzada, consolidates projections for the three sectors for the first time. The magnitude is significant: 57.168 billion dollars, above the 56.722 billion in 2022 and the 50.381 billion in 2025. This structural change, with the growing weight of Vaca Muerta energy and mining, stabilizes a flow historically dominated by agriculture and its seasonality. But the evolution of reserves does not keep pace.
According to the BCRA’s Foreign Exchange Report, in May the Central Bank bought 2.601 billion dollars, while individuals acquired 2.667 billion. Of those purchases, 1.804 billion were in cash and 408 billion in transfers without a specific destination. In the annual cumulative, the trend repeats: 9.756 billion for the BCRA against 14.033 billion for individuals. This does not even include corporate dollarization and profit remittances.
The most concerning data point is that, despite record inflows, the Central Bank is not accumulating reserves. The Stock Exchange projection indicates that the second half no longer shows the typical slowdown, thanks to energy and mining. But so far, that greater availability is not translating into reserves. Agriculture remains the main generator, with an estimated 34.897 billion for 2026, albeit with falling international prices. Mining, meanwhile, could exceed 9 billion dollars, with 88% growth in the first four months. And Vaca Muerta drives a historic energy surplus of 6.987 billion in the first half, with exports growing 52%.
The problem is that while dollars come in, they leave through other channels. The cheap dollar policy and exchange rate liberalization benefit savers but leave the Central Bank empty-handed. The question hanging in the air is: what good is a record liquidation if the state cannot retain the foreign currency? The illusion of the cheap dollar is sustained by reserves that are not arriving.
Para mí esto es un choreo a mano armada. Mientras los laburantes se parten el lomo, el BCRA compra miseria y las personas se dolarizan porque este gobierno de zurdos infiltrados no da ni una. Kukas del orto, devuelvan la guita al país.
Para mí esto huele a choreo de manual. El campo y Vaca Muerta liquidan récords pero el BCRA compra dos mangos mientras las personas se dolarizan como locas. Yo creo que el gobierno es un títere de los empresarios, siempre la misma historia: la guita se la llevan los de siempre y el pueblo se queda con las sobras. ¡Basta de hacerse los boludos!