Government's legislative agenda: Malvinas, Budget and electoral reform

What projects does the Government seek to advance in Congress?

The Executive branch aims to accelerate its parliamentary agenda on three simultaneous fronts. According to the report by Crónica, this Tuesday the National Sovereignty Defense Bill will be formalized in the Chamber of Deputies, which contemplates harsher penalties for unauthorized activities on the Argentine Continental Shelf. The final text included the criminalization of illegal fishing, despite the Federal Fishing Law being in force, along with hydrocarbon exploitation.

In parallel, the economic team will submit the Budget Bill to the Lower House that same day. Unlike previous calls, the technical presentation will be led by the area’s secretaries, and the presence of the Head of State and Economy Minister Luis Caputo was ruled out. The final figures remain under reserve, but the guidelines ratify the consolidation of the fiscal surplus and the coverage of direct social assistance.

The third axis is electoral reform. The Senate’s Constitutional Affairs Committee, chaired by Agustín Coto, will resume discussion. The reopening responds to a decision by the leader of the La Libertad Avanza bloc, Patricia Bullrich, following allies’ demand to incorporate Ficha Limpia projects, which prevent the candidacy of leaders with a conviction confirmed in the second instance.

What is the main point of friction in the electoral reform?

The central conflict revolves around the proposal to suspend or eliminate the Open, Simultaneous and Mandatory Primary Elections (PASO). As it is an electoral modification, the norm requires a qualified majority of 37 seats in the Senate and 129 in the Chamber of Deputies. According to the source, the ruling party currently does not have those numbers due to the reluctance of the Radical Party and the PRO.

To unblock the articles, efforts are divided into two fronts: Chief of Staff Diego Santilli leads negotiations with provincial governors, while Bullrich coordinates meetings with bloc leaders in the Upper House. To date, the governors of Catamarca (Raúl Jalil), Entre Ríos (Rogelio Frigerio), Neuquén (Rolando Figueroa) and Chaco (Leandro Zdero) have confirmed their support for canceling the primaries. In contrast, the administrations of Salta, Misiones, Jujuy and Santa Cruz keep their definitive position under reserve before the signing of the committee reports.

What did the Foreign Ministry say about Malvinas and how does it relate to the bill?

The Argentine Foreign Ministry reported that, on the instructions of Foreign Minister Quirno, a formal note of protest was submitted to the Embassy of the United Kingdom on July 13. The rejection was directed at the movements of the HMS Medway vessel, «illegally deployed in the Malvinas Islands», which were not notified in accordance with the bilateral agreements in force and involved transit through the Argentine Territorial Sea.

The official statement maintains that the unilateral action violates the Joint Declaration of September 25, 1991, which replaces annexes of the Madrid Declaration of February 15, 1990, in its section I.2 on confidence-building measures, point «b» (text according to the Joint Declaration of Buenos Aires and London of July 12, 1993). It also mentions UN General Assembly Resolution 31/49, which urges both parties to refrain from adopting decisions that introduce unilateral modifications in the situation of the islands while the sovereignty dispute remains pending.

The diplomatic protest and the legislative bill on Malvinas are two parallel actions of the same Government. The Foreign Ministry source does not mention the bill, and the legislative report does not mention the protest over the HMS Medway. There is no cross-confirmation between both sources about a coordination between the diplomatic and parliamentary channels.

Verifiable data and limits of the information

• National Sovereignty Defense Bill: would be formalized this Tuesday in the Chamber of Deputies, with harsher penalties for unauthorized activities on the Argentine Continental Shelf. It includes criminalization of illegal fishing and hydrocarbon exploitation. (Source: Crónica)
• Budget: enters the Chamber of Deputies this Tuesday. Technical presentation by area secretaries; the President and Minister Caputo would not attend. Guidelines: consolidation of the surplus and allocations for direct social assistance. (Source: Crónica)
• Electoral reform: the Senate’s Constitutional Affairs Committee resumes debate this Tuesday. Ficha Limpia and the suspension or elimination of the PASO are being discussed. (Source: Crónica)
• Required majorities: 37 seats in the Senate and 129 in the Chamber of Deputies to modify the electoral regime. The ruling party would not gather them due to reluctance from the Radical Party and the PRO. (Source: Crónica)
• Governors in favor of canceling the PASO: Catamarca, Entre Ríos, Neuquén and Chaco. Reserved position: Salta, Misiones, Jujuy and Santa Cruz. (Source: Crónica)
• Diplomatic protest: formal note of July 13 to the Embassy of the United Kingdom over unnotified movements of the HMS Medway and transit through the Argentine Territorial Sea. (Source: Argentine Foreign Ministry)
• Cited regulatory framework: Joint Declaration of September 25, 1991, Madrid Declaration of February 15, 1990, Joint Declaration of Buenos Aires and London of July 12, 1993, and UN General Assembly Resolution 31/49. (Source: Argentine Foreign Ministry)

Comparison and derived calculation: how far is the ruling party from electoral reform?

The legislative source indicates that the electoral modification requires a qualified majority of 37 seats in the Senate and 129 in the Chamber of Deputies, and that the ruling party currently does not have those numbers. It does not report how many seats the ruling party and its allies have, so it is not possible to calculate the exact difference. Nor does the source specify the total size of each chamber, although the required thresholds are mentioned.

Value module:

• Document: Crónica (secondary source, journalistic article).
• Body and date: no issuing body or publication date is recorded in the supplied material.
• Unit: seats.
• Values used: 37 seats in the Senate; 129 seats in the Chamber of Deputies (required qualified majority). The number of seats of the ruling party or allies is not available.
• Operation: a subtraction or percentage cannot be performed because the data on own seats is missing. It can only be stated that, according to the source, the ruling party does not reach those thresholds.

No currencies or units are converted because there is no exchange rate data or factors in the material. The original units are preserved (seats, dates, proper names).

What data or decision should be followed?

Monitoring should focus on the signing of the committee reports in the Senate’s Constitutional Affairs Committee and on the confirmation of provincial support to suspend or eliminate the PASO. Also on the formal presentation of the Malvinas bill in the Chamber of Deputies and the submission of the Budget, to verify whether the announced guidelines are maintained in the final text. On the diplomatic front, it remains to be seen whether the protest over the HMS Medway continues in bilateral efforts or international organizations, and whether the legislative bill on Malvinas incorporates or not elements linked to the protest. Neither of the two sources allows confirming those future steps.