Milei Warns There Will Be No Reduction in Export Taxes Without Sustained Fiscal Surplus

Key Data

President Javier Milei participated this Sunday in the opening of the 138th edition of the Rural Exhibition in Palermo. There he addressed one of the main demands of the agricultural sector: export taxes. He stated that «the countryside still bears the weight of export taxes» and that «we are on the path to completely freeing them.» However, he warned that «no tax cut is possible without a sustained fiscal surplus.»

Days earlier, Economy Minister Luis Caputo had ruled out any new announcement of export tax reductions. «The announcements were already made at the time,» he noted. Milei defended the measures already taken: elimination of the foreign exchange clamp, reduction of tariffs on inputs and machinery, opening of markets, and a previous reduction in export taxes.

The president was accompanied by his sister and General Secretary of the Presidency, Karina Milei; Chief of Staff Diego Santili; Buenos Aires City Mayor Jorge Macri; and the governors of Santa Cruz and Corrientes, Claudio Vidal and Juan Pablo Valdés.

Context and Scope

The Argentine Rural Society (SRA) was also celebrating its 160th anniversary. Its president, Nicolás Pino, demanded that «export taxes must cease to exist, by law and forever.» In his speech, Milei thanked the SRA and described the sector as a «hero» for its contribution to economic development. He stated that «the agro-industrial sector accounts for a quarter of the country’s employment» and that «the ceiling that politics placed on the countryside for 100 years is being lifted.»

The speech came after Milei traveled to Brazil to support the candidacy of Flávio Bolsonaro, where he insulted President Lula da Silva. The opening of the exhibition was scheduled for Saturday but was changed due to that trip.

The government insists on the need to maintain the fiscal surplus, but revenue data shows fragility. In June, tax resources totaled 20.017 trillion pesos, a nominal year-on-year increase of 23.7%, below inflation, implying a real decline of approximately 7%. This reflects the difficulties in sustaining fiscal revenues in a context of reduced taxes on foreign trade and lower economic activity.

What Is Confirmed and What Remains Open

It is confirmed that Milei conditioned new export tax cuts on the fiscal surplus; that Caputo ruled out new announcements; that at the Rural Exhibition the president defended his administration’s measures and attacked the «politics of the last 100 years.» The real decline in June revenue is also confirmed.

It remains open whether the government will implement new measures for the countryside in the short term; whether the surplus will be sustainable with falling revenue; and whether the agricultural sector will consider the announced progress sufficient. Milei did not specify dates for the total elimination of export taxes.

Analysis by El Sereno

Milei’s speech at the Rural Exhibition seeks to balance two contradictory forces. On one hand, his electoral base and his promise to reduce the size of the state and eliminate taxes. On the other, the need to maintain the fiscal surplus as an anchor for his economic program, especially when real revenue is falling. The warning that «no tax cut is possible without a fiscal surplus» conditions a central promise for the countryside, which is a key player in the economy and in political support for the government.

The data on the real decline in June revenue adds pressure. Although the government celebrates the surplus, it has been achieved mainly through a strong adjustment in spending, not through a genuine increase in revenues. In this context, promising new tax cuts without a concrete plan can generate expectations that later clash with fiscal reality. Milei’s ambiguity in not giving dates and recalling the surplus condition leaves open the possibility that the cuts may be postponed, which could cause discontent in a sector that has already been strongly demanding.

Furthermore, the trip to Brazil and the insults to Lula contrast with the conciliatory tone toward the countryside. The rural exhibition is also a political stage where relations between the government and producers are measured. The absence of concrete announcements and the constant reference to the surplus suggest that, for now, the government’s priority is fiscal consolidation, even if it means delaying demands from a key ally. The sustainability of this balance is uncertain, especially if economic activity does not recover and revenue continues to fall in real terms.