Banking delinquency: what BCRA data shows and what limits the sources have

The Central Bank published its Banks Report with statistics through August. According to the secondary source that comments on it, the delinquency ratio for total credit to the private sector went from 7.73% to 7.75% between July and August. In the same period, household delinquency fell to 12.81% and corporate delinquency rose to 3.8%. The primary source available is not the full report, but a statement from the Presidency about the reform of the BCRA’s Charter, which does not contain those data.

What exactly do the August data say?

The secondary source attributes to the BCRA a report with statistics updated to the end of August. It states that total delinquency rose 0.02 percentage points, from 7.73% to 7.75%. Household delinquency fell 0.13 points, to 12.81%, and corporate delinquency rose 0.18 points, to 3.8%. The same source notes that for households this is the first decline since March 2024.

The text also mentions that the estimated probability of default (PDE) fell for the third consecutive month, to 3.71%, the lowest since August 2025. These values do not appear in the available primary source, which is a statement from the Presidency about the reform of the BCRA’s Charter. Therefore, they cannot be verified with the material provided.

Why did household delinquency fall if credit remains complicated?

The secondary source attributes the decline to banks transferring non-performing loans to suspense accounts. It quotes analyst Sofía Bishop of Banco Voi, who states that without that cleanup household delinquency would probably have continued to rise. The primary source does not mention this mechanism nor contain statements from Bishop.

The same article indicates that the supply of credit in pesos was reduced and that refinancings advanced. It also notes that this process lost pace in recent weeks because new defaults began to be recorded on already refinanced loans. These statements come from the secondary source and are not confirmed by the primary source.

What do the sources show about companies and non-financial providers?

The secondary source reports that corporate delinquency rose to 3.8% in August. It mentions that the firm Fidélitas recorded 58,982 companies with payment problems in September, 53% more than a year earlier. It also indicates that among non-financial credit providers, which concentrate 17% of total financing to households, delinquency reached 33.9% after 21 consecutive monthly increases.

None of these data appear in the primary source. The primary source only reports that the Executive Branch is drafting a reform bill for the BCRA’s Charter, that the official announcement is expected in the coming weeks and that it will be sent to Congress. There is no explicit relationship between that reform and the delinquency data in the available material.

Verifiable data and limits of the comparison

• Total delinquency: 7.73% in July and 7.75% in August, according to the secondary source.
• Household delinquency: 12.81% in August, down 0.13 points, according to the secondary source.
• Corporate delinquency: 3.8% in August, up 0.18 points, according to the secondary source.
• PDE: 3.71%, lowest since August 2025, according to the secondary source.
• Companies with payment problems: 58,982 in September, 53% more than a year earlier, according to Fidélitas, cited by the secondary source.
• Non-financial provider delinquency: 33.9%, after 21 monthly increases, according to the secondary source.
• Refinanced debtors: 392,000 through August, equivalent to 3.58% of outstanding loans, according to the secondary source.
• Renegotiated amount: practically $3 trillion, according to the secondary source.
• Charter reform: being drafted by the Executive Branch, announcement expected in the coming weeks and submission to Congress, according to the primary source.

Derived comparison: how much does household delinquency weigh against corporate delinquency?

Document: BCRA Banks Report, cited by the secondary source. Agency and date: BCRA, data through August, disseminated according to the secondary source. Unit: percentage points of delinquency. Values used: household delinquency 12.81%; corporate delinquency 3.8%. Operation: 12.81 / 3.8 = 3.37. Household delinquency is approximately 3.37 times corporate delinquency. The denominator is corporate delinquency. This calculation is an arithmetic relationship between two values provided by the secondary source; it does not imply causality or projection. It is not converted to pesos nor adjusted for inflation because the material does not include an exchange rate, index, or reference date to do so.

The secondary source also mentions that household delinquency was 5.6% and corporate delinquency 1.2% a year ago. With those values, the ratio was 5.6 / 1.2 = 4.67. The comparison suggests that the gap between the two narrowed, but it is based on data from the secondary source and not on the full report. There is no primary source confirming those values.

What data or decision should be followed

The data to follow is the full publication of the BCRA Banks Report for August, to verify the delinquency ratios, the PDE, and the treatment of non-performing loans in suspense accounts. It is also worth following the evolution of corporate and non-financial provider delinquency, because the secondary source indicates that the biggest problems are concentrated there. In parallel, the reform bill for the BCRA’s Charter is an institutional process under way, whose text has not yet been sent to Congress according to the primary source. The relationship between that reform and the evolution of delinquency is not established in the material provided.