Argentina’s economy has accumulated seven consecutive months of monthly increases, but it still cannot lift its head in the year-on-year comparison. The latest report from the Composite Coincident Index of Economic Activity for Argentina (ICA-ARG), prepared by the Center for Research on the Economic Cycle (CICEc) of the Rosario Stock Exchange, revealed that in May activity grew only 0.03% compared to April, while compared to the same month last year, the decline was 0.8%.
The data is a cold shower for the government, which had been celebrating the streak of monthly increases. But reality is stubborn: last year’s floor was so deep that any rebound seems like a miracle. The CICEc report, which measures a broader range of variables than official GDP, makes it clear that the recovery is fragile and uneven. «This result indicates a recovery process of economic activity at a slow pace, which fails to surpass the relative maximum reached in 2025,» the document warns.
What is happening? The monthly improvement is sustained almost exclusively by the agricultural sector, which, thanks to a record soybean harvest, pushed the index. Without that boost, the overall indicator would have plummeted. Agriculture grew 2.6% monthly and 10.5% year-on-year, but the rest of the economy is not pulling its weight. Manufacturing industry, after five months of increases, fell again in May, with a year-on-year decline of 0.3%. The automotive sector and manufacturing exports are in intensive care.
Construction, another key thermometer, also stalled. After a hopeful start to the year, in May it recorded a monthly decline of 0.7%. Although in the year-on-year comparison it still shows a positive 2.7%, specialists warn that this number is a mirage from the first months of the year. «Construction interrupted the incipient recovery process,» the report states.
Imports, which often reflect productive activity, fell 1.2% monthly and 6.1% year-on-year. The Rosario Stock Exchange explains that the decline is concentrated in inputs and capital goods, indicating that the productive apparatus is not operating at full capacity. In contrast, consumer imports are rising, showing an economy that consumes but does not produce.
Retail consumption, meanwhile, improved 0.3% monthly, but remains 7% below May of last year. «The indicator continues at levels similar to the minimum of 2024,» the report acknowledges, although it notes that the rebound of the last two months is «encouraging.» However, vehicle registrations plummeted 5.2% monthly and 18.6% year-on-year, losing all the recovery accumulated in the first quarter.
Amid this gray picture, national tax revenue is the only one smiling: it has accumulated three months of increases and in May grew 1.5%, with a positive year-on-year rate for the first time since mid-2025. But that data is not enough to cover the sun with a finger. The economy remains stagnant, and the seven months of monthly increases are nothing more than a statistical mirage.
Para mí esto huele a más de lo mismo, 7 meses de subas truchas y seguimos en rojo? Es todo culpa del populismo nefasto que nos dejó en la ruina. Argentina no se arregla con parches, necesita un cambio radical, no más tibios viviendo del Estado. Viva la libertad carajo!
7 meses de subas y siguen festejando? para mi esto es una joda de los politicos de mierda, el pueblo labura cada vez mas y cobra menos mientras ellos se llenan los bolsillos con el FMI, ARGENTINA ES DE LOS TRABAJADORES CARAJO 🤬