The presidential race is heading toward a nail-biting finish. According to the latest National Public Opinion Study by the consulting firm Proyección Consultores, Javier Milei and Axel Kicillof are in a perfect tie in a potential runoff: 39.9% each. Another 13.7% would cast blank or null votes, and 6.5% still do not know what they would do. That nearly 20% of undecided voters appears to be the key that could determine who ends up in the Casa Rosada.
The parity is already hinted at in the first round. If elections were held today, Milei would come first with 33.7%, closely followed by Kicillof with 32.1%. A mere 1.6 percentage point difference, a margin within the study’s ±2.3% error range. Technically, they are tied. Further behind are Myriam Bregman (6.9%) and Maximiliano Pullaro (3.7%), while 13.5% would cast blank votes and 10% do not know. With that distribution, the President would not prevail in the first round and would be forced into a runoff that, according to the poll, he cannot win for now.
The tie is underpinned by an adverse economic climate. 59.3% believe Argentina is going through a crisis, and the consulting firm’s Economic Outlook Index (IPE) remains in stagnation territory, closer to pessimism than stability. The economy, once again, is the battleground where the fight is decided.
Regarding the image of the protagonists, Milei registers 40.5% positive approval (very good and good) against 55.4% negative, while Kicillof marks 36.5% positive image and 56% negative. The snapshot again shows them on a level playing field heading into the electoral setup.
Projecting to 2027, the electorate also appears divided. 37.8% would prefer a new government from a space close to Peronism. Among those supporting the continuity of the current administration, 20.3% want Milei’s current government to continue, and another 19.1% ask for the President to continue but with a different team and a change in policies. The sum of anti- and pro-management stances once again draws a scenario of balanced forces.
That climate of polarization is reflected in the willingness for «useful voting.» 37.5% agreed with the idea of voting for a candidate they do not like to prevent «the return of Peronism,» but almost as a mirror image, 40.1% endorsed doing so to prevent «Milei from continuing as president.» Two rejections of similar magnitude that explain why, when pitted against each other, neither manages to pull away.
The study also surveyed preferences by political space: heading into national elections, La Libertad Avanza leads with 34.8% and Fuerza Patria is a step behind with 33.7%, followed by PRO (7.4%), the Frente de Izquierda (4.3%), and Provincias Unidas (2.1%).
The conclusion is clear: Argentina is split down the middle. Milei and Kicillof measure forces in a scenario of absolute parity, where any move could tip the scales. 2027 is shaping up to be a battle of titans, and the vote of the undecided will be the deciding factor.
para mi milei y kici son la misma mierda del sistema los dos vendepatria kjjj como van a estar empatados si los dos son basura yo creo que la unica salida es la izquierda de verdad abajo los liberfachos y los peronchos hay que romper todo ya fue
Para mí esto huele a humo de zurdos, Kicillof empatado con Milei? Me parece un verso de los Kukas que no quieren aceptar que Milei les va a romper el orto en el ballotage. Vamos a mostrarles a estos degenerados quién manda, Milei presidente de nuevo carajo.