Georgieva visits Argentina: IMF political backing despite unmet targets

Why is Georgieva visiting Argentina now?

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will arrive in Argentina on Monday and Tuesday of this week, according to El Destape. It will be her first visit to the country since taking office in 2019. The last visit by an IMF head was Christine Lagarde’s in 2018 during the G20 summit in Buenos Aires. Georgieva will hold meetings with President Javier Milei, Economy Minister Luis Caputo, and Central Bank President Santiago Bausili, and will also travel to Neuquén to visit Vaca Muerta.

According to El Destape, the visit is political in nature and aims to support the government’s economic program, rather than being a technical negotiation. Former IMF Western Hemisphere Department Director Claudio Loser noted that the visit is «more about public relations than guarantees» and that Georgieva will support the government despite «loose ends» in the targets. Economist Daniel Marx, a former debt negotiator, agreed that the IMF chief is concerned with the program’s continuity, not the technical reviews.

Which targets under the IMF agreement are unmet?

The current IMF program, approved in 2025, includes three main targets: net reserve accumulation, primary fiscal result, and zero financing from the BCRA to the Treasury. According to El Destape, at least two of these are in non-compliance.

• Net reserves: As of December 31, 2025, Argentina had accumulated approximately $10.5 billion less than stipulated. The IMF granted a waiver during the second review of the agreement in May 2026 and relaxed the target, allowing the BCRA to buy about $11.8 billion less.
• Fiscal target: By June 2026, the program required a primary surplus of 6.86 trillion pesos. According to consulting firm Outlier, excluding extraordinary revenues (such as privatizations), the surplus was 6.3 trillion pesos, 0.36 trillion below the target. The only target still on track is zero BCRA financing to the Treasury.

El Destape attributes the drop in revenue to lower VAT collection due to depressed consumption, which according to Scentia fell for the sixth consecutive month in June, and according to CAME, SME sales are down 2.5% year-to-date.

How much must Argentina pay the IMF in the coming years?

The primary IMF source (official TSV download as of June 30, 2026) details Argentina’s projected payments in Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). Annual totals in SDRs are presented below. No conversion to dollars is made because the SDR/USD exchange rate was not provided in the sources.

Valuation module: Calculation of projected payments

• Document: Official TSV download of Argentina’s projected payments to the IMF, updated as of June 30, 2026.
• Institution and date: International Monetary Fund, June 30, 2026.
• Unit: Special Drawing Rights (SDRs).
• Values used: Total 2026: 2,082,529,842 SDRs; Total 2027: 5,650,460,371 SDRs; Total 2028: 7,004,829,747 SDRs; Total 2029: 7,792,755,072 SDRs; Total 2030 (partial through May): 3,212,369,389 SDRs.
• Operation: No conversion is performed due to lack of exchange rate.

What does the visit mean for the program’s future?

According to analysts consulted by El Destape, Georgieva’s visit aims to shore up the program’s continuity ahead of 2027, an election year in Argentina. Marx noted that the conversation with Milei will be forward-looking, focusing on challenges to reduce macroeconomic vulnerability. Loser added that the visit to Vaca Muerta reinforces the idea that the IMF supports the administration beyond the numbers.

Non-compliance with targets does not appear to jeopardize the program, given that the IMF has already granted waivers. However, meeting the fiscal target for all of 2026 is «very demanding,» according to Outlier, because the second half of the year would need to generate more surplus than the first. Falling consumption and real wages (seven declines in eight months, according to June data) complicate that goal.

What data should be monitored?

The fiscal result for the second half of 2026 will be key to determining whether Argentina can meet the annual target without new waivers. It is also important to monitor the evolution of the BCRA’s net reserves, which in December 2025 were about $10.5 billion below the agreed level. The flexibility granted by the IMF allowed purchases of about $11.8 billion less, but the margin is narrow. Any deviation could require new negotiations.