Government Advances with Reform of BCRA Charter and Doubts Persist over Anti-Inflation Plan

President Javier Milei led a Cabinet meeting at Casa Rosada, after the events for Independence Day, in which he provided details about the reform project of the Charter of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA). According to the Presidency, the draft text is being prepared and its official announcement is expected in the coming weeks. Once completed, it will be sent to Congress for consideration.

The initiative seeks, according to the ruling party, to «preserve the value of the currency» and limit BCRA intervention in support of economic policy. However, the announcement comes in a context of inflation that, although it showed a slowdown in June (1.9% monthly, 33% year-on-year), remains far from the promise of «zero inflation» that Milei had proposed for August.

Economist Ricardo Arriazu, considered one of the «fathers» of the economic plan, warned in a webinar organized by BlackTORO about a possible «exchange rate run» next year, in an election year. He also pointed out the existence of «pockets of poverty and unemployment» in the Buenos Aires suburbs, the most populated area of the country, as a consequence of the new productive matrix.

What the official project establishes and what it does not

The primary source is the statement from the Presidency of the Nation, which confirms the existence of the project and its state of preparation. The specific details of the reform are not yet known, such as the exact changes to the Charter, the scope of the BCRA’s new functions, or the schedule for parliamentary consideration.

Arriazu’s warning: exchange rate run and social discontent

In parallel to the official announcement, economist Ricardo Arriazu, in a BlackTORO webinar, noted that «the run will exist; it will be late, not early,» and that this would give the Government «an enormous opportunity to accumulate reserves.» He also warned about «pockets of discontent, unemployment, and poverty» in the Buenos Aires suburbs, where nearly 11 million people live.

These statements are not confirmed by any other source, but they come from an economist with access to the presidential circle. The media outlet Tribuna reproduces them, but there is no official document supporting them. Therefore, they should be considered as expert opinion, not as confirmed fact.

The promise of zero inflation and current data

The media outlet Tribuna recalls that Milei had promised to bring inflation down to zero starting in August. However, the latest known data is 1.9% monthly in June, with a year-on-year variation of almost 33%. These numbers come from INDEC, although the direct source is not cited in the material. The difference between the promise and reality is notable, but it cannot be attributed to a single cause.

Arriazu himself, according to Tribuna, would have «sown doubts» about the present and future of the economy, but it is not specified whether he refers to interest rate policy or the plan in general.

Value module: comparison between the promise and the inflation data

To gauge the gap between the electoral promise and the actual data, the following calculation is made:

• Document: Javier Milei’s campaign speech (referred to by Tribuna) and June inflation data (INDEC, cited by Tribuna).
• Organization and date: INDEC, June 2025 (monthly and year-on-year data).
• Unit: Percentage.
• Values used: Promise: 0% monthly; real inflation: 1.9% monthly.
• Operation: Difference = 1.9% – 0% = 1.9 percentage points.

This difference shows that real inflation far exceeds the promised target. No currency or unit conversion is performed because it is not necessary for this calculation.

What to watch closely

The most relevant data to follow is the official presentation of the draft reform of the BCRA Charter, which according to the Government will take place in the coming weeks. It will also be key to observe the reaction of the markets and Congress, as well as the next inflation indices, to assess whether the promise of «zero inflation» is achievable. Additionally, Arriazu’s statements about a possible exchange rate run deserve attention, although for now they are only a hypothesis.