While Lionel Messi and the national team go for another World Cup, Javier Milei’s government has set out to conquer a title Argentina has never achieved: investment grade. This is the category reserved for economies considered safest and most reliable for investment, a seal that reduces the risk of debt default, expands the universe of international funds willing to finance the country, and lowers the cost of credit for the public sector and companies. Economy Minister Luis Caputo said this week that the goal is to reach it by 2031.
But to leave behind the «junk bond» label, balancing public accounts is not enough. The main risk rating agencies — responsible for grading sovereign debt — and market analysts agree that the real game is just beginning: the tasks ahead include accumulating more international reserves, strengthening economic institutions, developing the capital market, consolidating export-driven growth, and demonstrating that this course can be sustained beyond one government.
In other words, the country faces the challenge of convincing markets that economic stability has ceased to depend on a particular administration and has become a state policy. Only when that change is credible can Argentina aspire, for the first time in its history, to join the group of countries with investment grade.
These are the main conditions that, according to risk agencies and international analysts, Argentina must consolidate to achieve investment grade. Caputo said this week that he discussed that goal with the three main rating agencies and that two of them replied it was difficult, though possible.
The goal still seems distant. Argentine sovereign debt remains within the so-called speculative grade, popularly known as the «junk bond» universe. In May, Fitch raised the country’s rating from CCC+ to B-, and a month later, S&P did the same. Moody’s, however, keeps the rating at Caa1, although the market expects an update this month. Even with those improvements, Argentina remains six notches below BBB-, the first level considered investment grade by Fitch and S&P, while on Moody’s scale the threshold begins at Baa3.
Argentina has accumulated nine sovereign defaults, a track record that continues to condition investors’ risk perception and explains why rating agencies place so much emphasis on the long-term consistency of economic policies.
That is precisely the diagnosis of Todd Martínez, director and co-head of sovereigns for Latin America at Fitch Ratings. «We have no restriction against Argentina reaching investment grade, and other countries have achieved it,» he said. But he immediately set a limit on expectations: covering those six notches in just five years requires «a substantial improvement in credit metrics,» something he described as «very challenging.»
One of the most striking conclusions of Fitch’s analysis is that the main challenge is no longer on the fiscal front. «Argentina already has a good fiscal profile compared to better-rated countries,» Martínez said. Although he clarified that «the fiscal task is not 100% complete,» he argued that the real test now lies elsewhere: external liquidity.
«External liquidity is the most relevant metric. It is not enough to keep finding dollars to pay debt; it must improve its dollar availability and reduce its dollar needs, so that there are no problems in the face of any unexpected shock,» he explained.
The government enters that discussion with progress that until recently seemed unlikely. In June, it met for the first time the semi-annual reserve accumulation target agreed with the IMF and was about US$1 billion short of the target set for all of 2026. However, for Fitch that achievement is merely the first step in a much longer process.
This is not a theoretical discussion. The 2026-2027 financial program that Caputo presented implicitly included that challenge. According to official projections, the Treasury will need to buy about US$4.9 billion from the Central Bank during 2027 to meet debt maturities. The problem is that it will have to do so in an election year, when historically the private supply of dollars falls because demand for exchange rate hedging increases.
That risk was also pointed out by GMA Capital. The consultancy argued that after clearing much of the doubts about 2026, «the risk shifts to the political plane.» The main challenge will be to sustain reserve accumulation, refinance dollar debt in the local market, and get through the electoral process without a new dollarization of portfolios.
But for rating agencies, the test does not end with reserves. Martínez argued that investment grade will also depend on demonstrating that economic improvements can survive different governments. «Investment grade does not depend on the continuity of Milei’s government, but on the continuity of a better policy framework initiated under the Milei administration, regardless of who is in government at the time,» he said.
Standard & Poor’s agrees on the main axes, although it introduces a nuance. The agency explained that there is no single combination of variables to achieve investment grade. Two countries can share the same rating with different strengths. What they usually have in common, it noted, is a track record of political stability, solid institutions, and good economic management that ultimately translates into low inflation, sustained growth, and greater predictability.
Ramiro Blázquez, strategist at StoneX, agrees with that diagnosis. «To reach investment grade, progress would need to be made in generating predictability for economic policy through strong institutions,» he said. Among them, he mentioned a fiscal rule approved by Congress with penalties for non-compliance, a reform of the BCRA Charter, single-digit annual inflation, a significant improvement in net reserves, and a deeper peso credit market that reduces the historical dependence on the dollar.
«In addition to institutions, economic policy must gain credibility over time,» Blázquez added. According to his estimate, investment grade will likely be preceded by a sharp drop in country risk. Today, that indicator for Argentina is around 400 basis points, while most Latin American countries with investment grade finance themselves with a risk close to 100 points.
Para mí, Milei es el único que la ve clara. Los zurdos de siempre nos tienen podridos con sus políticas de mierda que nos dejaron en la ruina. Este gobierno va a sacar la basura de los bonos y lograr el grado de inversión, no importa lo que digan las agencias vendidas. Vamos a ser potencia, carajo!
Para mí esto huele a cuento del tío, Milei y los bonos basura son la misma mierda. ¿Reservas? Primero rajen al FMI y a los medios que nos lavan el cerebro. Grado de inversión es humo para que los ricos sigan choreando. Yo creo que acá se necesita poder popular ya, no más promesas de estos giles.