Argentina is heading toward an unprecedented credit crisis. According to a study by consulting firm 1816, based on data from the Central Bank’s Debtor Central, nearly 7 million Argentines can no longer apply for a bank loan. Household default rates have climbed to 12.7% of total lending, while in non-bank entities such as virtual wallets and fintech, delinquency has reached an alarming 32.2%.
The most striking figure is that 27% of people with some type of financing are no longer creditworthy due to accumulating more than 90 days of arrears. An estimate from Banco Provincia calculates that this represents about 6.8 million people, of whom 2 million have been expelled from the system in the last eight months. To grasp the magnitude of the problem, in October 2024 household default stood at 2.5%; in just a year and a half it has multiplied fivefold, a leap that according to 1816 is unprecedented since the end of convertibility.
Credit from virtual wallets, fintech, and retail chains is more accessible but also more expensive, with much higher interest rates. That explains why default in that segment nearly triples that of traditional banks. Although these loans represent only 17% of the total system, their delinquency level has become a warning sign that is hard to ignore.
The consulting firm also warned that, at least until next year’s elections, credit to families is unlikely to be a significant driver of economic activity. On a macro level, millions of people outside the credit system mean one less sector to boost consumption and the economy in general.
The profile of the most affected is clear: among young people aged 26 to 35, 40% have some unpaid debt. And the largest share of the outstanding balance, 42.8%, falls on the 18-to-25 age group. From the National Government, officials in the economic team maintain that the worst of the default is already behind and that numbers should begin to improve. One possible avenue is the collection of the year-end bonus, which could lead some debtors to cancel overdue liabilities. Another is growth in total credit, which would lower the delinquency percentage in relative terms.
The Vice President of the Central Bank, Vladimir Werning, spoke of a «new credit cycle» that will be «more selective, healthy, and sustainable,» in a low-inflation scenario where, unlike the past, debts no longer melt away on their own and credit history once again matters when defining who gets financing and at what cost.
Para mí esto es un verso kirchnerista. 7 millones de vagos que no pagan y después lloran. Los sindicalistas chorros arruinaron el crédito. ¡Hay que eliminar el curro estatal y que el Estado no se meta! Viva la libertad carajo.
6.8 millones afuera del credito?? para mi es a proposito los bancos se llenan los bolsillos con nuestros intereses esto huele a dictadura del capital nos excluyen adrede una verguenza q el gobierno no intervenga los responsables son los banqueros chorros y politicos vendepatria menos mal q vamos a tomar el poder abajo el sistema firmado comandante_piquetero