We’ve been debating Adorni for 100 days and the government still can’t escape the labyrinth. A shame, because it has good economic news to share, such as the export boom, the drop in country risk, the second consecutive monthly improvement in the Consumer Confidence Index (ICC) of Di Tella University, and the World Bank’s endorsement to honor commitments with creditors. Of course, there’s also bad news: mass consumption numbers—one of the street-level thermometers—continue to fall year-on-year and month-on-month. Not even shopping malls were spared, although more and more international brands are asking to enter.
The question is no longer whether «Alhorni» will leave, but when. The issue is unsustainable. The government has already paid all imaginable costs without any benefit. So, it’s preferable for him to resign, place him somewhere to keep him quiet, feign ignorance, and move on. At this point, any «republican» gesture from the president wouldn’t help much either. Could he say «I fired him because he lied to me and committed acts of corruption»? Very difficult. It would sound opportunistic. The street would say, «It took you 3 months to figure it out, buddy?»
Manuel, would he keep a prudent silence? Or would he one day give a bombshell interview and spill the beans? You never know with characters who don’t come from politics, especially if they feel they have nothing to lose. Phone call for Quirno: what position do we have unfilled abroad? A golden exile with a juicy salary (starting at USD 15,000) and extra expenses covered by the state (house and car) wouldn’t be bad at all. And the legal cases? For that, we add Mahiques, who can become a hero by saving the TT duo (Tapia – Toviggino). For now, better to change the spokesperson, because «Alhorni» was already just an ornament.
Given the progressive erosion of presidential approval until May—when it stopped—the main opposition stirred and had the astuteness to push for a censure motion. That forced the government to support and defend the official, deepening the agenda’s stagnation. The more they attack him, the more they must keep him. It’s the famous «between a rock and a hard place.» Every move has been a checkmate announcement. Better to concede the game and prepare better for the next one.
But let’s return to the economy, which is most important. This was an exceptional year for harvests. 2027 won’t be as spectacular, but generally El Niño will be favorable because it guarantees more water, though also some floods. On balance, the government will benefit from increased activity. If forecasts hold—and nothing strange happens in the world—Argentina should grow again this year and next, stringing together three consecutive periods with declining inflation, something that hasn’t happened with both conditions since the golden years of 1991 to 1993.
We mentioned the improvement in the ICC at the beginning. It has risen for two consecutive months, but took a significant jump in June—6.4%—although it is below the same month in 2025, and 10% lower than the peak of the Milei administration. The interesting part, as always, is the trend. This time it improved in all segments, especially in Greater Buenos Aires (GBA). Is there some real recovery, or is it wishful thinking? We’ll only know in a couple of months when we see INDEC’s numbers for the current month.
Let’s focus on three other data points: 1) growth was higher in low-income segments than in high-income ones, 2) perception of the current situation was much higher than future expectations, and 3) year-on-year figures are negative in all categories, especially in the short-term outlook. We’re left with a big question: why does it grow more where the government performs worst electorally, GBA and low-income areas? Despite Adorni? Are politics and economic expectations becoming disconnected again, as in other times?
Those who «don’t see it» are the governors. This week, credit lines backed by co-participation guarantees were extended to three dialoguists, one of them a clear ally: Entre Ríos. As we’ve been noting in this column for months, many provincial and municipal treasuries are in an endless adjustment due to the persistent drop in revenue. Milei’s phrase «I have them by the balls» would come true. That gives him room to maneuver to condition them on key issues like the censure motion against «Alhorni» and the fate of electoral reform.
Other governors, like Neuquén’s, fear not so much the fiscal issue as the «colossus’s» prophecy of a massive migration of labor to where there are greater growth expectations in the coming years: energy and mining. If there were an avalanche of people seeking their luck in Vaca Muerta, it would become pandemonium, as it would saturate public services and also because available positions are for skilled personnel. That’s why the mayor of Añelo came out to ask that no more people come, contradicting Sturzenegger.
Meanwhile, Kirchnerism keeps pressuring Axel with maximalist demands (and from Máximo) that would significantly complicate his presidential aspirations. Free Cristina, not aligning with the IMF, and eliminating the RIGI would completely hinder the hypothesis of forming a moderate progressive front. She does this to pull the string and condition negotiations among Peronist tribes. But might that cause the governor to lose? It doesn’t matter: CFK wants to remain the opposition leader.
I deeply regret that you forget that this government destroyed the salaries of the middle class and retirees. I really don’t understand liberals talking about economic success with an honest population destroyed. Because there are many who live off political corruption. Sad comment from you for the workers. Many have already had to give up their pets and stop paying for their health insurance. You don’t see it. And you likely never will.
It’s no more and no less than what Javo said he would do: «I’m going to fuck you up, I’m the Mole who comes to destroy the State from within.» Didn’t you get the message?
Well… there could be a surprise ending! It would all depend on what the Tarot cards say or what the «Lubavitcher Rebbe» would convey in his meditations with his personal rabbi, the Israeli ambassador. Demanding sir: state without reservation what that surprise ending would be… Thank you very much.
Para mí ya están hinchando las pelotas con Adorni, déjenlo laburar que la economía va como piña con Milei. El riesgo país bajó y los zurdos lloran, esto huele a que no aguantan ver el éxito. Aguantá que esto recién arranca, viva la libertad carajo!
Para mí Adorni es un payaso con micrófono pero el problema de fondo es el modelo económico de mierda que bancan. Mientras el pueblo se prende fuego ellos discuten boludeces. Yo creo que la izquierda es la única salida. ¡Que se vayan todos carajo!