Seventh Rightward Shift in South America! Colombia Joins the Bloc and Brazil Is the Last Frontier

The victory of libertarian candidate Abelardo de la Espriella in Sunday’s presidential runoff in Colombia confirms the rightward shift in South America. The region thus adds a seventh link to that bloc, which already includes Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Paraguay, Bolivia, and Peru.

The regional trend is almost sealed, pending Brazil, the only major presidential election left on the South American calendar. «Undoubtedly, there is a regional movement to the right. However, this phenomenon does not appear to be driven by a massive ideological conversion of voters, but by much more pragmatic factors,» explained Eduardo Ruiz, an analyst at Control Risks.

The expert points to factors such as «the deterioration of security, low economic growth, rising cost of living, frustration with traditional political elites» and the weight of unsuccessful left-wing administrations. This would have created favorable conditions «for candidates who promise order, authority, stability, and more market-oriented economic policies.»

Since 2017, when then-Ecuadorian President Lenín Moreno distanced himself from Rafael Correa’s leftist project, five other countries have chosen to oust their governments and hand control to a right-wing candidate. Daniel Noboa’s victory in 2023 extended this logic in Ecuador, while in Argentina, an electorate tired of unfulfilled promises brought Javier Milei to the Casa Rosada in 2022.

In Bolivia, President Rodrigo Paz unseated the Movement for Socialism (MAS) after two decades in power, although weeks of massive protests and blockades show that his administration is not without challenges. In Chile, conservative José Antonio Kast defeated communist candidate Jeannette Jara, ending the leftist path initiated by Gabriel Boric. However, the lack of immediate results has already led to changes in his cabinet.

Paraguay is the exception: the government of Santiago Peña extended the reign of the conservative Colorado Party, which has governed almost uninterrupted for the last 70 years. Peru also deviates from the typical pendulum: Keiko Fujimori ended two interim conservative governments, and her party, Popular Force, already held a majority in Congress, which has drawn criticism for interfering with presidential autonomy. According to Human Rights Watch, Peruvian lawmakers have weakened the legal framework and judicial independence in pursuit of «personal interests.»

Beyond the rightward shift, the trend is not without risks. «I would not be surprised if many of these right-wing governments lose subsequent elections. For now, they have not managed to consolidate structural domination,» said Juan Negri, director of the International Studies program at Torcuato Di Tella University.

The runoff in Colombia and, above all, the upcoming elections in Brazil – in October of this year – could define how the pieces fall into place in the region. Abelardo de la Espriella secured his access to the Casa de Nariño with 43.7% of the vote in the first round, closing the door on Iván Cepeda, the candidate of current President Gustavo Petro. However, analysts point to Brazil as the most important test. «Brazil is the largest economy and the largest democracy in Latin America, so a right-wing victory would carry enormous symbolic and political weight,» Ruiz explained. Less than four months before the elections, the scenario seems unclear, with Lula’s administration trying to avoid ghosts and an opposition that fails to gain a clear advantage, even with Flávio Bolsonaro. «Anti-Lulismo is very strong and the Bolsonaro brand pays off, but both coalitions are still within striking distance,» Negri noted.

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